BigBoardDraft introduces SURGE. SURGE is a metric that I developed that takes both pure combine results and simple metrics and filters players through a number of non-dichotomously equivalent thresholds. What that means is that a pass rusher may receive or be penalized a number of “points” based on whether or not he passes the threshold. In my research, I found that some players who failed certain thresholds had almost no chance at success.  I dubbed these “auto-fail” metrics. These metrics penalized players so much that regardless of how they performed on any other metrics, they would fail SURGE.

With that being said, let’s take a look at how SURGE has performed in predicting the success of pass rushers in the NFL. SURGE players are those that are predicted to have a high level of success and Non-SURGE players are predicted to have far lower chances of succeeding in the NFL.

Anthony Barr Aaron Curry
Barkevious Mingo Aaron Maybin
Brian Orakpo Adam Carriker
Bruce Irvin Adrian Clayborn
Bud Dupree Akeem Ayers
Cameron Jordan Aldon Smith*
Cameron Wake Alex Okafor
Chandler Jones Andre Branch
Chris Long Anthony Spencer
Clay Matthews Armonty Bryant
Cliff Avril Bjoern Werner
Connor Barwin Branden Jackson
Danielle Hunter Brandon Graham
Demarcus Ware Brooks Reed
Devin Taylor Carlos Dunlap
Everson Griffin Charles Johnson
Ezekial Ansah Chris Clemons
Frank Clark Clint Sintim
Gaines Adams Cody Brown
Greg Hardy Corey Lemonier
Jamie Collins Cournelius Washington
Jared Allen Courtney Upshaw
Jerry Hughes Da’Quan Bowers
JJ Watt Damontre Moore
Joey Bosa Darryl Tapp
Justin Houston Datone Jones
Justin Tuck David Veikune
Kameron Wibley Dee Ford
Khalil Mack Demarcus Lawrence
Koa Misi Derrick Harvey
Kony Ealy Derrick Morgan
Lamarr Woodley Dion Jordan
Leonard Floyd Everette Brown
Manny Lawson Ikaika Alama-Francis
Mario Addison Jabaal Sheard
Mario Williams Jadeveon Clowney
Melvin Ingram Jamaal Anderson
Michael Bennett James Cowser
Michael Johnson Jarvis Jones
Myles Garrett Jarvis Moss
Robert Quinn Jason Worilds
Ryan Kerrigan Jeremiah Attaochu
Trent Cole Joe Kruger
Trey Flowers JPP
Ty Powell Kyle Van Noy
Vic Beasley Larry English
Von Miller Lavar Edwards
Lawrence Jackson
Mallicah Goodman
Marcus Smith
Margus Hunt
Mathias Kiwanuka
Michael Buchanan
Nick Perry
Olivier Vernon
Paul Kruger
Quentin Groves
Quinton Coples
Robert Ayers
Sam Montgomery
Sergio Kindle
Shea McClellin
Shilique Calhoun
Tamba Hali
Tim Crowder
Tourek Williams
Trent Murphy
Trevardo Williams
Turk McBride
Vernon Gholston
Vinny Curry
Whitney Mercilus
William Gholston

As you can see there are some clear misses on either side of the board for the vast majority the system’s projections were correct. Of course, the talent of a pass rusher is subjective to a certain extent, the system was over 90% correct in predicting the success of nearly 150 pass rushers.

As the sample size continues to grow the system can be even more refined. No metric is perfect, and SURGE on its own is likely not ever going to replace watching film for most people but as a supplement to evaluation, it is far and away the most accurate predictor of success that has been developed thus far. SURGE can very well change the way we view the pass rusher position.


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